Eric Saubert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Eric Saubert

TE · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Eric Saubert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+104/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Eric Saubert has garnered a colossal 8.7% of his offense's air yards this year: 78th percentile among tight ends.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in the league.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 57.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Eric Saubert has run a route on 13.2% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 17th percentile among tight ends.
Eric Saubert has been among the weakest pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging just 7.0 yards per game while grading out in the 6th percentile among tight ends.