Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Equanimeous St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-194/+139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +146 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
This year, the poor Vikings pass defense has given up a monstrous 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
Equanimeous St. Brown's 9.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 29.0.
With a meager 1.0 adjusted receptions per game (13th percentile) this year, Equanimeous St. Brown rates among the bottom WRs in the game in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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