Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Equanimeous St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Equanimeous St. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (80.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (29.4%).
The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

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