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Equanimeous St. Brown

Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Equanimeous St. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (80.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (29.4%).
  • The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.
  • The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
  • The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

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