Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 3:04 AM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Equanimeous St. Brown to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.7% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.4%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (68.4%).
The San Francisco 49ers cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
Equanimeous St. Brown has been among the worst WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.9 receptions per game while grading out in the 15th percentile among wide receivers.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.