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Equanimeous St. Brown

Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears

Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Equanimeous St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this season (16.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (3.7%).

Equanimeous St. Brown has accumulated far more air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.

The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Equanimeous St. Brown has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football, completing a measly 53.4% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 7th percentile among WRs

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