Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Equanimeous St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Equanimeous St. Brown has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (34.0 per game) than he did last year (12.0 per game).
Equanimeous St. Brown has put up many more receiving yards per game (24.0) this year than he did last year (10.0).

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
Equanimeous St. Brown has been much more involved in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for 83.0% of snaps vs just 34.2% last season.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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