Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Equanimeous St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+108/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.9%) to WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Giants defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Equanimeous St. Brown's 13.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the worst in the league: 20th percentile for WRs.

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