Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Equanimeous St. Brown

WR · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:45 PM EST

Analysis

Equanimeous St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Equanimeous St. Brown to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game this week (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.3% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears offensive line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Equanimeous St. Brown has totaled a measly 14.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 23rd percentile among wideouts.
Equanimeous St. Brown has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 12.0 yards per game while checking in at the 16th percentile among wide receivers.