Elijah Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 9:46 PM EST

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns may rely on the pass game less in this game (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
This week's line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Browns, who are massive -10-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Browns as the most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 138.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The highest number of plays in football have been run by the Browns this year (a colossal 62.1 per game on average).

Favors Under

As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Cleveland Browns grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year.
The Bengals pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63.3%) to wide receivers this year (63.3%).