Elijah Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 66.1 plays per game.
Elijah Moore has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (86.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (75.6%).
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Elijah Moore's receiving talent has gotten better this season, totaling 3.9 adjusted catches vs a mere 2.8 last season.
As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Arizona's group of CBs has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This game's line implies an extreme running game script for the Browns, who are overwhelmingly favored by 13.5 points.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 48.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Elijah Moore's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 65.3% to 60.0%.

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