Elijah Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:46 PM EST

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-142/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +118 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and call more carries) since they be rolling with backup quarterback PJ Walker.
A passing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a whopping 66.2 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Elijah Moore's 20.8% Target Share this season represents a a meaningful improvement in his passing attack utilization over last season's 11.2% mark.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-least pass-centric team in the league (58.2% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Browns.
Our trusted projections expect the Browns to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause decreased passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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