Elijah Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 9:16 PM EST

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have 134.7 total plays run: the most among all games this week.
The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Browns last year (a whopping 63.8 per game on average).
As it relates to air yards, Elijah Moore grades out in the towering 75th percentile among WRs last year, accruing a remarkable 66.0 per game.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Browns as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
While Elijah Moore has accounted for 17.1% of his offense's targets in games he has played last year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Cleveland's pass game in this game at 10.3%.
With a subpar 6.9 adjusted yards per target (12th percentile) last year, Elijah Moore places as one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL in the league.