Elijah Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 66.1 plays per game.
Elijah Moore has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (86.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (75.6%).
Elijah Moore has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (60.0 per game) than he did last year (46.0 per game).
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Cardinals pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. wideouts this year, allowing 9.16 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

This game's line implies an extreme running game script for the Browns, who are overwhelmingly favored by 13.5 points.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cleveland Browns to pass on 48.4% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Elijah Moore's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 65.3% to 60.0%.

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