Elijah Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Browns have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.0 plays per game.
Elijah Moore has run a route on 84.5% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to WRs.
The leading projections forecast Elijah Moore to garner 7.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
The Browns O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns as the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Elijah Moore's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging just 5.81 yards-per-target compared to a 7.75 figure last year.
The Ravens pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wide receivers this year, surrendering 6.89 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been very good since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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