Elijah Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns have called the most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 66.9 plays per game.
Elijah Moore's 86.0% Route Participation Rate this season indicates a material growth in his pass attack usage over last season's 75.6% figure.
After accruing 46.0 air yards per game last year, Elijah Moore has posted big gains this year, now boasting 56.0 per game.
The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
This year, the weak Broncos pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 71.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Denver Broncos, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.9 per game) this year.
Elijah Moore's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, totaling a mere 6.62 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.75 rate last season.

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