Elijah Moore Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 4:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Moore to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game this week (16.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.2% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown bad efficiency against WRs since the start of last season, conceding 9.06 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Elijah Moore has been among the weakest wideouts in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.66 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.