Elijah Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+310/-470).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Moore to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (18.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played).
Elijah Moore has accrued a colossal 87.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Elijah Moore ranks in the 84th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.36 per game.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on just 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.