Elijah Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+328/-613).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -606 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -613.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Moore to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (19.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.5% in games he has played).
Elijah Moore's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 58.2% to 61.3%.

Favors Under

Elijah Moore has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (83.0 per game).
Elijah Moore's 31.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 48.5.
The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have incorporated play action on a measly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.