Elijah Mitchell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Mitchell

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Mitchell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-103/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in run blocking.

Favors Under

Elijah Mitchell has been a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (30.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (65.8%).
Elijah Mitchell has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (55.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.