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Elijah Mitchell

Elijah Mitchell Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 11

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

Elijah Mitchell Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+251/-408).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.2% red zone run rate.

Elijah Mitchell has run for 0.31 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in football among running backs (77th percentile).

Opposing squads have rushed for the most TDs in the NFL (1.20 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.

The Arizona Cardinals linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.

The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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