Elijah Mitchell Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Elijah Mitchell

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Mitchell

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Elijah Mitchell Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
At the moment, the 8th-most run-centric team in football (41.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the 49ers.
The 49ers O-line profiles as the 7th-best in football last year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
After comprising 29.1% of his team's rushing play calls last year, Elijah Mitchell has been called on less the rushing attack this year, currently comprising only 15.9%.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Minnesota's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.

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