Elijah Mitchell Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 19

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Mitchell

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Mitchell Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive ends project as the 6th-worst group of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

Elijah Mitchell has been a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this year (30.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (65.8%).
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.