Elijah Mitchell Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Elijah Mitchell

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Mitchell

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Mitchell Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Elijah Mitchell has been a much smaller part of his offense's run game this season (34.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (65.8%).

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