Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Eli Mitchell

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Eli Mitchell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Mitchell to accrue 13.9 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Elijah Mitchell has grinded out 67.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (96th percentile).
Elijah Mitchell has been among the top running backs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.70 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Mitchell to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (42.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.8% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.