Dyami Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Dyami Brown

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Dyami Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-115/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
Dyami Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (27.4% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (15.2%).
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
With a feeble 13.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (19th percentile) this year, Dyami Brown places as one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL in the league.
With a bad 54.1% Adjusted Catch% (22nd percentile) this year, Dyami Brown has been as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers.
The Patriots pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wide receivers this year, yielding 7.64 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.