Durham Smythe Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Durham Smythe has run fewer routes this season (75.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (27.1%).
Durham Smythe's receiving skills have gotten better this season, notching 2.8 adjusted catches vs a mere 1.2 last season.
With a terrific 80.9% Adjusted Completion% (80th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe stands among the best possession receivers in the NFL among TEs.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (81%) to tight ends this year (81.0%).
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the worst unit in football this year with their pass rush.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.19 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.

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