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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.

Durham Smythe has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (72.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (27.1%).

Durham Smythe's play as a receiver has been refined this year, accumulating 2.8 adjusted receptions vs just 1.2 last year.

With a remarkable 80.9% Adjusted Completion% (77th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe rates among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends.

The Giants safeties rank as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.

This year, the formidable Giants defense has given up a paltry 61.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

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