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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Durham Smythe has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (72.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (27.1%).

Durham Smythe's 2.3 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a noteworthy improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 1.2 mark.

With an impressive 79.7% Adjusted Catch% (86th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe rates as one of the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends.

The Titans pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.2%) to TEs this year (79.2%).

The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the worst safety corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.

The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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