Durham Smythe Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
The Commanders defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
Durham Smythe's 73.0% Route% this season conveys a substantial boost in his air attack volume over last season's 27.1% rate.
Durham Smythe's 2.3 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a noteworthy growth in his receiving proficiency over last year's 1.2 rate.
With an exceptional 80.0% Adjusted Completion% (76th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe has been as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among tight ends.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
The Commanders pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.2%) versus tight ends this year (69.2%).

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