Durham Smythe Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-189/+136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -189.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Durham Smythe has been among the worst pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 1.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 21st percentile among TEs.

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