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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+156/-219).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.

Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.

Durham Smythe's 7.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 14.1.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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