Durham Smythe Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
Durham Smythe has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing an impressive 84.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 6th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (67.5%) to TEs since the start of last season (67.5%).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.