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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and running stats too high) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with better weather this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may slide.

With a top-tier 68.1% Route Participation Rate (80th percentile) since the start of last season, Durham Smythe ranks as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

Durham Smythe has notched a whopping 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among TEs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).

With a weak 3.77 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (16th percentile) last year, Durham Smythe has been among the best pass-game tight ends in football in space.

Since the start of last season, the imposing Bills pass defense has yielded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a meager 4.0 YAC.

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