Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Durham Smythe's 74.7% Route Participation Rate this year reflects an impressive gain in his pass attack usage over last year's 27.1% rate.
After accruing 5.0 air yards per game last year, Durham Smythe has gotten better this year, currently boasting 15.0 per game.
Durham Smythe has put up many more adjusted receiving yards per game (26.0) this year than he did last year (11.0).

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year with their pass rush.

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