Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Durham Smythe has run fewer routes this season (75.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (27.1%).
After averaging 5.0 air yards per game last year, Durham Smythe has undergone big improvement this year, currently sitting at 18.0 per game.
Durham Smythe has accumulated many more adjusted receiving yards per game (30.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).
With a terrific 80.9% Adjusted Completion% (80th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe stands among the best possession receivers in the NFL among TEs.
Durham Smythe's receiving efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 8.64 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 7.13 mark last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.19 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.

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