Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
Durham Smythe has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (72.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (27.1%).
Durham Smythe has posted many more air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (5.0 per game).
Durham Smythe has accrued many more adjusted receiving yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (11.0).
With a remarkable 80.9% Adjusted Completion% (77th percentile) this year, Durham Smythe rates among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
This year, the formidable Giants defense has given up a paltry 61.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

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