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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.2% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Durham Smythe has been among the weakest TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 13.0 yards per game while grading out in the 25th percentile among tight ends.

Durham Smythe's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.4% to 57.9%.

The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 36.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.

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