Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
The Commanders defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
Durham Smythe's 73.0% Route% this season conveys a substantial boost in his air attack volume over last season's 27.1% rate.
Durham Smythe has posted quite a few more air yards this year (14.0 per game) than he did last year (5.0 per game).
Durham Smythe's 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a significant growth in his receiving skills over last season's 11.0 mark.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).
The Commanders pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.2%) versus tight ends this year (69.2%).
This year, the tough Commanders pass defense has given up the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing tight ends: a feeble 3.9 YAC.

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