Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 7.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.
Durham Smythe has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (6.0 per game) than he did last season (15.0 per game).
Durham Smythe's 7.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 14.1.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.