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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.

The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 9.19 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-most in the league.

The New York Jets safeties profile as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

Durham Smythe has put up far fewer air yards this year (6.0 per game) than he did last year (15.0 per game).

More Durham Smythe Player Props

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