Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:15 AM EST

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+123/-163).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the 2nd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (61.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has displayed weak efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, surrendering 8.68 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Durham Smythe's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 86.9% to 83.3%.
Durham Smythe's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this season, totaling just 7.15 yards-per-target vs a 9.42 mark last season.

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