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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Dolphins are a giant 13.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.1 plays per game.

Durham Smythe has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (5.0 per game) than he did last year (15.0 per game).

Durham Smythe's 7.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 14.1.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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