Durham Smythe Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Durham Smythe has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching a stellar 86.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile.
Durham Smythe has been among the most efficient receivers in football among tight ends, averaging a stellar 9.41 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 98th percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.