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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Durham Smythe Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -122.
  • Durham Smythe has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching a stellar 86.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  • Durham Smythe has been among the most efficient receivers in football among tight ends, averaging a stellar 9.41 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 98th percentile.
  • The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

  • The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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