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Drew Sample

Drew Sample Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders

Drew Sample Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-260/+190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Commanders defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.1 per game) since the start of last season.

With an impressive 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Drew Sample rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.

The Washington Commanders linebackers profile as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Bengals are heavily favored in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

Since the start of last season, the tough Commanders defense has yielded a paltry 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

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