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Drew Sample

Drew Sample Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders

Drew Sample Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Commanders defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (35.1 per game) since the start of last season.

With an impressive 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Drew Sample rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to tight ends.

With a stellar 6.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Drew Sample places as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in football in the open field.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Bengals are heavily favored in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

Drew Sample has accumulated a puny 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 21st percentile among tight ends.

With a subpar 13.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (25th percentile) since the start of last season, Drew Sample rates among the weakest TE receiving threats in football.

Drew Sample comes in as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging just 6.56 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 17th percentile.

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