Drake London Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Drake London

NFL · Player Props

Drake London

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Drake London Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Drake London to accumulate 6.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
Drake London has been a less important option in his offense's passing game this year (19.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (29.1%).
Drake London's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year's 4.2 rate.
Drake London's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 62.6% to 54.0%.

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