Drake London Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Drake London

NFL · Player Props

Drake London

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Drake London Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Drake London's ability to grind out extra yardage has been refined this year, averaging 2.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 0.00 figure last year.
This year, the weak Washington Commanders defense has yielded a whopping 206.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst in football.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency against wideouts this year, conceding 10.74 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the league.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Washington's group of LBs has been very bad this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Drake London's 20.8% Target% this season illustrates a a substantial decrease in his pass game usage over last season's 29.1% rate.
Drake London has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (67.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
Drake London's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 62.6% to 57.0%.

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