Drake London Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Drake London

NFL · Player Props

Drake London

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Drake London Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 41.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Drake London to accumulate 6.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among WRs.
Drake London's 2.36 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a a significant gain in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 0.0% rate.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
Drake London has been a less important option in his offense's passing game this year (19.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (29.1%).
After accumulating 75.0 air yards per game last year, Drake London has undergone a big decline this year, currently averaging 60.0 per game.
Drake London's 40.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a a significant reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year's 55.0 mark.

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