Drake London Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Drake London

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Drake London Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-355).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Drake London to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (27.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (22.2% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 59.0 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.58 per game since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.