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Drake London

Drake London Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Drake London Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-512).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +317 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +292.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Drake London has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 35.3% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
  • Drake London has accrued a colossal 67.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among WRs.
  • Drake London's 62.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 90th percentile for wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
  • Drake London has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing just 58.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 10th percentile among wideouts
  • The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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