Drake London Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Drake London

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Drake London Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-512).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +317 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +292.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Drake London has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 35.3% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Drake London has accrued a colossal 67.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among WRs.
Drake London's 62.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 90th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 52.7 plays per game.
Drake London has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing just 58.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 10th percentile among wideouts
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.